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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：1998
摘要
How infectious 疾病s spread in space within one cycle of an 流行病學c is an important question that has received considerable theoretical attention. There are, however, few empirical studies to support theoretical approaches, because data are scarce. Weekly reports obtained since 1984 from a 網絡 of general practitioners spanning the entire French territory allows the analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of influenza over a fine spatial scale. This analysis indicates that 擴散 over long distances, possibly due to global transportation systems, is so quick that homogeneous global mixing occurs before the 流行病學c builds up within infected patches. A simple model in which the total number of cases is given by the empirical time-series and cases are randomly assigned to patches according to the 族群 wei
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