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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2010
摘要
Background: In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial 流行病學c phase has been used to make 統計 inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the 傳播 potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the 流行病學c in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. Methods: An updated estimate of R that takes into account the 流行病學c data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent 傳播 dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary 傳播. Pitfalls i
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