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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2010
摘要
Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human 族群 will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on 族群 projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and 族群 growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect 族群 growth t
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