摘要 Moore's Law has created a popular perception of e

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論文資訊

• 類型：已發表論文
• 日期：2011

摘要

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in 資訊 technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in 資訊 technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: 資訊 storage, 資訊 transportation (bandwidth), and 資訊 transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform 統計 analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at 統計ly significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends i

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