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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2012
摘要
Many driven threshold systems display a spectrum of avalanche event sizes, often characterized by power-law 縮放律. An important problem is to compute probabilities of the largest events ("Black Swans"). We develop a data-driven approach to the problem by transforming to the event index frame, and relating this to Shannon 資訊. For earthquakes, we find the 12-month probability for magnitude m > 6 earthquakes in California increases from about 30% after the last event, to 40%-50% prior to the next one.
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