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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2012
摘要
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact 網絡 of a 族群 fundamentally shape the course of 流行病學cs. While there is a robust and growing theory for the dynamics of single 流行病學cs in 網絡s, we know little about the impacts of 網絡 structure on long-term 流行病學c or endemic 傳播. For seasonal 疾病s like influenza, pathogens repeatedly return to 族群s with complex and changing patterns of susceptibility and immunity acquired through prior infection. Here, we develop two 數學 approaches for modeling consecutive seasonal outbreaks of a partially-immunizing infection in a 族群 with contact heterogeneity. Using methods from 滲流 theory we consider both leaky immunity, where all previously infected individuals gain partial immunity,
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