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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2012-11-16
摘要
氣候 change is expected to alter the dynamics of infectious 疾病s around the globe. Predictive models remain elusive due to the complexity of hostparasite systems and insufficient data describing how environmental conditions affect various system components. Here, we link hostmacroparasite models with the Metabolic Theory of 生態學, providing a mechanistic framework that allows integrating multiple 非線性 environmental effects to estimate parasite fitness under novel conditions. The models allow determining the fundamental thermal niche of a parasite, and thus, whether 氣候 change leads to range contraction or may permit a range expansion. Applying the models to seasonal environments, and using an arctic nematode with an endotherm host for illustration, we show that 氣候 warming can split a continuous s
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