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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2014-02-10
摘要
The most important driver of 氣候 variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on 網絡 analysis, which allows projection of an El Nino event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Nino in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Nino to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.
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