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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2014-08-07
摘要
Host immunity and demographics (the recruitment of susceptibles via birthrate) have been demonstrated to be a key determinant of the periodicity of measles, pertussis and dengue 流行病學cs. However, not all 流行病學c cycles are from pathogens inducing sterilizing immunity or are driven by demographics. Many sexually transmitted infections are driven by sexual behaviour. We present a 數學 model of 疾病 傳播 where individuals can disconnect and reconnect depending on the infectious status of their contacts. We fit the model to historic syphilis (Treponema pallidum) and gonorrhea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae) incidence in the USA and explore potential intervention strategies against syphilis. We find that cycles in syphilis incidence can be driven solely by changing sexual behaviour in structured 族群s. Our model
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