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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2014-12-11
摘要
Introduction: It has been nearly 25 years since the publication of Infectious 疾病 of Humans (1), the “vade mecum” of 數學 modeling of infectious 疾病; the proliferation of 流行病學ological careers that it initiated is now in its fourth generation. 流行病學ological models have proved very powerful in shaping health policy discussions. The complex interactions that lead to pathogen (and pest) outbreaks make it necessary to use models to provide quantitative insights into the counterintuitive outcomes that are the rule of most 非線性 systems. Thus, 流行病學c models are most interesting when they suggest unexpected outcomes; they are most powerful when they describe the conditions that delineate the worst-case unexpected scenario, and provide a framework in which to compare alternative control strategies. But wha
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