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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2015-10-19
摘要
In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m > 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert-based forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant 資訊 gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of
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