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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2016
摘要
Nowcasting is a term originating from 經濟s and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least ~20 or more large earthquake cycles
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