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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2017-03-02
摘要
A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from August to November. 氣候 studies have indicated a role of regional precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance effect. Motivated by this previous evidence, we took advantage of the strong 2015-2016 El Nino event to evaluate the predictability of cholera dynamics for the city in recent times based on two 傳播 models that incorporate SST anomalies and are fitted to the earlier surveillance records starting in 1995. We implemented
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