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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2017-04-18
摘要
Background: Confirmed local 傳播 of Zika 病毒 (ZIKV) in Texas and Florida have heightened the need for early and accurate indicators of self-sustaining 傳播 in high risk areas across the southern United States. Given ZIKV's low reporting rates and the geographic variability in suitable conditions, a cluster of reported cases may reflect diverse scenarios, ranging from independent introductions to a self-sustaining local 流行病學c. Methods: We present a quantitative framework for real-time ZIKV risk assessment that captures uncertainty in case reporting, importations, and vector-human 傳播 dynamics. Results: We assessed county-level risk throughout Texas, as of summer 2016, and found that importation risk was concentrated in large metropolitan regions, while sustained ZIKV 傳播 risk is concentrated in th
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