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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2017-04-27
摘要
Recent 流行病學cs of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of 傳播 by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic 傳播 models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of 傳播 for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three 病毒es, models and human case data both show that 傳播 occurs between 18-34 degrees C with maximal 傳播 occurring in a range from 26-29 degrees C. Controlling for 族群 size and two socio經濟 factors, temperature-dependent 傳播 based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human 傳播 occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitabl
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