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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2018
摘要
Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying conflict-generating processes? Or is it consistent with a highly variable but otherwise stable system of conflict? Using the empirical distributions of interstate war sizes and onset times from 1823 to 2003, we parameterize stationary models of conflict generation that can distinguish trends from 統計 fluctuations in the statistics of war. These models indicate that both the long peace and the period of great violence that preceded it are not 統計ly uncommon patterns in realistic but stationary confli
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