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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2018
摘要
Background: All 生物 族群s exhibit fluctuations in size over time due to 隨機 variation in growth rates that result in local extinctions, but these dynamics are poorly understood in traditional human 族群s. Here, we explore extinction processes over human 演化ary history due to the effects of (i) demographic 隨機ity, (ii) environmental 隨機ity, and (iii) periodic catastrophes. Organism: Modern humans, Homo sapiens. Methods: We built a 數學 model of 隨機 族群 dynamics, estimated its parameters using ethnographic data, and simulated probability distributions of extinction outcomes using 蒙地卡羅 methods. Results: Although expected times to extinction vary under different conditions, hunter-gatherer 族群s likely experienced local extinction events every few hundred years (or every few generations). Conclusions: Played
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