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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2018-02-26
摘要
Election outcomes can be difficult to predict. A recent example is the 2016 US presidential election, in which Hillary Clinton lost five states that had been predicted to go for her, and with them the White House. Most election polls ask people about their own voting intentions: whether they will vote and, if so, for which candidate. We show that, compared with own-intention questions, 社會-circle questions that ask participants about the voting intentions of their 社會 contacts improved predictions of voting in the 2016 US and 2017 French presidential elections. Responses to 社會-circle questions predicted election outcomes on national, state and individual levels, helped to explain last-minute changes in people's voting intentions and provided 資訊 about the dynamics of echo chambers among suppo
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