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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2020
摘要
Armed conflict data display 縮放律 and universal dynamics in both 社會 and physical properties like fatalities and geographic extent. We propose a randomly branching, armed-conflict model that relates multiple properties to one another in a way consistent with data. The model incorporates a 碎形 lattice on which conflict spreads, uniform dynamics driving conflict growth, and regional virulence that modulates local conflict intensity. The quantitative constraints on 縮放律 and universal dynamics we use to develop our minimal model serve more generally as a set of constraints for other models for armed conflict dynamics. We show how this approach akin to 熱力學s imparts mechanistic intuition and unifies multiple conflict properties, giving insight into causation, prediction, and intervention timing.
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