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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2020-02-18
摘要
Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving 病毒 which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza 傳播, we identified indicators of future 演化ary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster depends on its initial 流行病學ological growth rate-which is a function of 突變al load and 族群 susceptibility to the cluster-along with the variance in growth rate across co-circulating 病毒es. Logistic regression can predict whether a cluster at 5% relative frequency will eventually succeed with similar to 80% sensitivity, pr
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