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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2020-04-03
摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for control measures that reduce the 流行病學c peak (“flattening the curve”). Here we derive the optimal time-limited intervention for reducing peak 流行病學c prevalence in the standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We show that alternative, more practical interventions can perform nearly as well as the provably optimal strategy. However, none of these strategies are robust to implementation errors: mistiming the start of the intervention by even a single week can be enormously costly, for realistic 流行病學c parameters. Sustained control measures, though less efficient than optimal and near-optimal time-limited interventions, can be used in combination with time-limited strategies to mitigate the catas營養級 risks of mistiming.
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