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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2020-04-17
摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic is still in its early stages and given the speed and magnitude of local outbreaks it is urgent to understand how mitigation measures translate into changes in key 流行病學ological and clinical outcomes. Here, we employ a 數學 model to explore the short-term consequences of lowering the reproduction number R0 and delaying measures on total infections and fatalities. The positive implications of mitigation generally accrue as these measures are adopted early, with the most striking effects seen when the reproductive number is lowered to a level RC≈1.0. As the delay in adopting measures exceeds approximately the half-way point to the peak of an outbreak, the effects of lowering R0 markedly decrease. Aiming for reproduction numbers close to 1.0 can substantially reduce fatality
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