本頁只刊出中文翻譯與中文說明；英文原文請見下方原文連結。
原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2021-02-23
摘要
Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In Nature Human Behaviour, we reported that we could improve predictions of the 2016 US and 2017 French presidential elections by asking participants how they thought their 社會 circles would vote. A potential concern is that the 社會 circle question might predict less well in elections with larger numbers of political options, because it becomes harder to keep track of how 社會 contacts plan to vote. However, we have now found that the 社會 circle question even performs better than the own intention question, in predictions of two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands’ 2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.
※ 此為已發表論文，全文需透過期刊付費取得