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論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2021-03-10
摘要
A counterargument to the importance of 氣候 change for malaria 傳播 has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal 流行病學c size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in 流行病學c size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With 統計 analyses and a process-based 傳播 model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in 氣候 variability, esp
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