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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2021-07-30
摘要
Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand sides of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to 經濟 output in most countries. These direct shocks to supply and demand will propagate downstream and upstream through production 網絡s. Given the exogenous shocks, we derive a lower bound on total shock propagation. We find that even in this best case scenario 網絡 effects substantially amplify the initial shocks. To obtain more realistic model predictions, we study the propagation of shocks bottom-up by imposing different rationing rules on industries if they are not able to satisfy incoming demand. Our results show that 經濟 impacts depend strongly on the 湧現 of input bottlenecks, making the rationing assu
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