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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型:已發表論文
- 日期:2022-04-08
摘要
數學 proofs are both paradigms of certainty and some of the most explicitly-justified arguments that we have in the 文化 record. Their very explicitness, however, leads to a paradox, because the probability of error grows exponentially as the argument expands. When a mathematician encounters a proof, how does she come to believe it? Here we show that, under a 認知ly-plausible belief formation mechanism combining deductive and abductive reasoning, belief in 數學 arguments can undergo what we call an epistemic 相變: a dramatic and rapidly-propagating jump from uncertainty to near-complete confidence at reasonable levels of claim-to-claim error rates. To show this, we analyze an unusual dataset of forty-eight machine-aided proofs from the formalized reasoning system Coq, including major theorems rangin
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