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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2022-09-02
摘要
More than two years after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are still experiencing contagious waves. As this is a long-lasting process, it becomes relevant to have a predictive tool to identify the intensively active places within a region. This study presents the development of a forecasting model applied to foresee the progress of the contagious process in Mexico and its regions. The method comprehends aspects of deterministic and probabilistic modeling. The deterministic part comprises the classical SIR model with some adjustments. The probabilistic part builds and populates a three-dimensional array, which is then used to describe and recall the probabilities of going from one status to another after some time, very much like a 馬可夫ian process. The process status is modeled a
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