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原文連結
論文資訊
- 類型：已發表論文
- 日期：2023-02-01
摘要
The question of whether earthquake occurrence is random in time, or perhaps chaotic with order hidden in the 混沌, is of major importance to the determination of risk from these events. It was shown many years ago that if aftershocks are removed from the earthquake catalogs, what remains are apparently events that occur at random time intervals, and therefore not predictable in time. In the present work, we enlist 機器學習 methods using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. With these methods, probabilities of large events and their associated 資訊 value can be computed. Here 資訊 value is defined using Shannon 熵, shown by Claude Shannon to define the surprise value of a communication such as a string of computer bits. Random messages can be shown to have high 熵, surprise value, or uncertainty
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