聖塔非研究所

科學知識預測的有限傳播崩潰

2024-12-02 · 已發表論文 · 更新 2026/08/30 下午12:48

摘要 Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher than asset values, and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate an analogous phenomenon in the case of biomedica…

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論文資訊

  • 類型:已發表論文
  • 日期:2024-12-02

摘要

Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher than asset values, and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate an analogous phenomenon in the case of biomedical knowledge, when promising research receives inflated attention. We introduce a 擴散 index that quantifies whether research areas have been amplified within 社會 and scientific bubbles, or have diffused and become evaluated more broadly. We illustrate the utility of our 擴散 approach in tracking the trajectories of cardiac stem cell research (a bubble that collapsed) and 癌症 immunotherapy (which showed sustained growth). We then trace the 擴散 of 28,504 subfields in biomedicine comprising nearly 1.9 M papers and more than 80 M citations to demonstrate that limited 擴散 of biomedical knowledge anticipates abrupt decr

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